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Captain's Blog, Stardate: 3/3/08

09.01.09

THE SHOW: Are we having fun yet? Me neither. My old pal Deep Blue keeps writing me about various stocks and such that might have upside, but then acknowledges it's hard to imagine much of anything working this year. Except cash, and you better hope that's real cash and not some sort of 'cash equivalent.' Still, there will be winners and losers. I'm sorry I know there will be fits and starts but I really don't see the non-dollar commodity run crashing on us. (See Buffett, Warren on the Brazilian real.) Gold is the new greenback kind of deal....Kudos to hedge fund manager Phil Goldstein who is suing the S.E.C. to lift its ban on advertising. It's just garbage that the hedgies can't do this, and garbage that they can't publically release their returns either. (We all find out, anyway.) All of this is just a holdover from when hedge funds were a tiny, exclusive slice of the financial services pie. Newsflash: they no longer are! Goldstein told the FT: "gun shops are allowed to advertise, the Massachusetts state lottery is allowed to have a website. We want to be treated like any other business." Now obviously there has to be a limit on hucksterism here, but mutual funds and broker dealers abide by those types of limits just fine. Bring on the hedgies I say!......Guess Jarrett Lillien didn't get the brass ring at Etrade. (Don Layton, formerly of JP Morgan Chase did.) How often do 'acting' heads ultimately get the job?.......Questions: Is Dell over? Is Google over? Is Facebook over before it started? See what some nasty economic weather can do to your brain!

Got an interesting press release this morning from the Nasdaq OMX Group, which runs the Nasdaq stock exchange. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner proposed tough new rules Tuesday, saying they could prevent another AIG debacle. Surprise! The economy isn't all rainbows, puppies, kittens and sunshine after all.



When the Patriots try to finish off an undefeated season tonight, thousands of Pats fans will come out to Giants Stadium and thousands of Giants season ticket holders will be counting the money they collected by selling them the tickets. As the bear market becomes situation normal, successful investing has become more a matter of "my stocks are down less than your stocks." But should it be? The old adage is that any fool can make money in a bull market and we saw that writ large over the past couple of years. Making money in today's market takes real skill. The question really then is what kind of stocks could possibly go up in this market? Congratulations. You just bought Bear Stearns. You, me and all taxpayers.

It should have been an ugly morning for the markets.

Those rare sports fans who think there aren't enough Mannings in commercials can take heart. Peyton's little brother Eli is likely about to be Madison Avenue's new go-to guy. DAVOS: Given worldwide financial jitters, I think the sense of urgency at Davos is palpable. If there was ever a need to have an intelligent truly global debate, it is now. The issues here are pressing and real-time. Attendees from outside the U.S. are feeling penalized, and there is real concern that the U.S. doesn't have the leadership to respond properly, and that that response may become overly political given the ongoing campaign.

There has never been a better year for upsets in college football than 2007. But there's one place where the traditional powerhouses still dominate -- in the rankings of revenue and profits. THE SHOW: Are we having fun yet? Me neither. My old pal Deep Blue keeps writing me about various stocks and such that might have upside, but then acknowledges it's hard to imagine much of anything working this year. Except cash, and you better hope that's real cash and not some sort of 'cash equivalent.' Still, there will be winners and losers. I'm sorry I know there will be fits and starts but I really don't see the non-dollar commodity run crashing on us. (See Buffett, Warren on the Brazilian real.) Gold is the new greenback kind of deal....Kudos to hedge fund manager Phil Goldstein who is suing the S.E.C. to lift its ban on advertising. It's just garbage that the hedgies can't do this, and garbage that they can't publically release their returns either. (We all find out, anyway.) All of this is just a holdover from when hedge funds were a tiny, exclusive slice of the financial services pie. Newsflash: they no longer are! Goldstein told the FT: "gun shops are allowed to advertise, the Massachusetts state lottery is allowed to have a website. We want to be treated like any other business." Now obviously there has to be a limit on hucksterism here, but mutual funds and broker dealers abide by those types of limits just fine. Bring on the hedgies I say!......Guess Jarrett Lillien didn't get the brass ring at Etrade. (Don Layton, formerly of JP Morgan Chase did.) How often do 'acting' heads ultimately get the job?.......Questions: Is Dell over? Is Google over? Is Facebook over before it started? See what some nasty economic weather can do to your brain! Hillary Clinton is no dummy. Even her detractors know that. And yet in last night's Democratic presidential debate in Nevada, Clinton floated what is perhaps the dumbest solution to the current mortgage mess I've heard from a top presidential contender.



As you cringe over your mutual fund statements, you may be thinking, "This can't possibly get any worse!" Think again. If the Comic Book Guy character on "The Simpsons" were an economist, this might be his characterization of the next five days: Worst...Week...Ever! Everybody is feeling the pain of this recession and bear market. But older Americans, especially those living on fixed incomes, are really getting squeezed. And it's not fair.

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