Investing in the 'new normal'

08.10.09

Money manager Ron Muhlenkamp gets a lot of credit for his bold, macro-driven investing style, and he deserves it: His namesake fund has returned 9% annually over the last 15 years, 2% better than the S&P 500.

Stocks rallied Tuesday as investors looked beyond the Federal Reserve's dour outlook on the economy and instead scooped up shares hit in last year's big selloff. Gold surged to a record high Tuesday after a news report sparked widespread talk about the U.S. dollar being unseated as the currency for trading oil. The dollar retreated against major currencies Wednesday as two weak jobs reports showed that the already battered U.S. labor market wasn't getting better.



More and more economists are talking about how they think the economy actually grew in the third quarter. Unfortunately, it might be hard to find evidence of that once companies start reporting their latest quarterly results. The 1990s are commonly known as Japan's "lost decade." Now, this decade isn't looking too good either. Treasurys fell Monday after the government received strong demand for its sale of $7 billion worth of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

Signs of gold fever are everywhere. TV commercials scream, "Sell your baubles, prices are reaching the sky!" Investors have poured more than $12 billion this year into SPDR Gold Trust, the big exchange-traded fund.

Truckers, railroads and other transportation companies are seeing a pickup in demand for the first time in four years, a strong vote for the economic recovery. But for stock investors, timing an entry point into the sector is tricky. I took a look at some of the most actively traded stocks Wednesday morning. And the usual suspects were all there. Citigroup. Ford Motor. Intel. DryShips.

It's one of the truths of mutual fund investing: You buy the manager as much as the prospectus. So it pays to have someone you trust. Stocks fell Tuesday after Standard & Poors cut Greece's debt rating to junk and lowered Portugal's debt rating, raising fears that a euro zone debt crisis could slow the global economic recovery. The dollar goes down. Stocks go up. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.



The dollar weakened Thursday as investors regained some appetite for risk amid easing concerns about Greece and strong corporate results. Ford is back. The automaker recently reported its first annual profit in four years; sales are improving; and investors have pushed up its stock 550% in the past year. When new clients come to me, I ask them a few questions about risk. One is "What would you do if the value of your stocks fell by 50%?"

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Oil backs off 7-month low

22.05.10

After hitting a new 7-month low earlier in the day, oil prices rebounded as investors looked ahead to the expiration date of the active futures contract.

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Euro extends gains on dollar

22.05.10

The euro pared back earlier losses against the dollar Wednesday, after Germany said it would ban short selling on some European bank shares and the zone's government bonds.

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Treasurys little changed amid volatile trading

22.05.10

Treasurys were little changed Wednesday, as investors looked for direction amid mixed signals out of Europe and the United States.

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Stocks skid on global economic jitters

22.05.10

Stocks recovered from deep losses posted earlier in the session but ended lower Wednesday, as investors welcomed the Fed's forecast of an improving economy amid lingering fears about the global economy.

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Oil slides nearly 3%

22.05.10

Oil prices fell Thursday, as stocks got hammered on worries about spreading European debt problems.

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Euro rebounds on ECB intervention talk

22.05.10

The euro recovered from earlier losses Thursday amid speculation that the European Central Bank could intervene in the currency market, following signs the Swiss National Bank is already doing so.

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Treasurys rally on flight to safety

22.05.10

Treasurys rallied Thursday as stocks plunged and investors worried about European debt and its effect on the global economy.

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Fear index soars to 14-month high

22.05.10

Wall Street's key measure of volatility skyrocketed on Thursday, as all major stock indexes plummeted on concerns about the European debt crisis.

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Fear spikes, stocks tank

22.05.10

Stocks got pummeled Thursday, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 losing enough to fall into "correction territory" - marked by a drop of more than 10% off the rally highs.

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Euro continues rebound

22.05.10

The euro continued bouncing off four-year lows seen earlier this week, as investors unwound bets against the shared currency on speculation that the European Central Bank will intervene in the market for the first time in 10 years.

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